Syria Is Gone

The conflict in Syria does not look like it will subside anytime soon.  It seems every single day there is a new story about the atrocities taking place in that country.  It is amazing to think that this conflict started out because the Syrian people protested against their government.  Those of us living in the West take it for granted that we can protest against our government whenever we're unhappy with what they're doing. Yet in this Middle Eastern country, a smile protest tut s into a civil war which is taking for longer than it needs to.  

There is no guarantee that if President Bashar Assad had stepped down the country would be better.  As we can see in a lot of countries where a dictatorship cedes control, the country struggles to form a new identity for itself.  But despite the uncertainties that come along with newly unveiled democracy (see Egypt) Assad should have given his people the  opportunity to realize this fleeting dream of democracy, but as is  the case throughout history, the ruling class always underestimates the resolve of those they seek to control.

The bigger issue coming out of the conflict in Syria, has little to do with whether Assad will step down or not. The fact of the matter is that the Syrian regime is bound to lose.  Assad himself must know by now that doom is written in his future.  Assad's decision not to step down when the conflict started has created a future for Syria which no Syrian would have wanted.  Because of Assad, sectarian division and violence will become the norm.  And a Syrian identity will cease to exist.

It might seem unfair to lay all the blame at Assad's feet, after all the rebels have a role to play in the distinction just as much as anybody else.  But when you're a leader, it is your responsibility to make sure that you lead, and that you keep things from getting out of hand.  Assad's biggest problem is a failure to manage.  And beyond that, it is the erroneous decision not to have a proper exit strategy at hand.  War is the worst exit strategy any manager can have, and the end will not look good for Assad.  Unfortunately for Syrians, their next chapter is going to be equally demure.  Many people will die before this conflict ends.  Neighbors will kill one another, and each other's children.  In the end the Syria they know will no longer exist.  In its place will be a populated land struggling to identify itself in a region troubled by the melange of modernity and tradition.